Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.5
196
36,520
U.S. stocks moved mostly higher over the course of yesterday’s trading day after
Nifty
0.7
71
11,008
recovering from an initial move to the upside. The Dow Jones inched up by 0.2% to
Mid Cap
2.1
322
15,376
25,120 and the Nasdaq climbed up by 0.6% to 7,855.
Small Cap
1.1
176
15,966
U.K. stocks were flat to slightly higher on Tuesday as investors watched oil price
Bankex
1.4
423
29,920
movements and the latest employment data came in pretty much in line with
expectations. Employment level set a fresh record in the three months to May and
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
unemployment was unchanged, yet pay growth eased to its lowest in six months,
figures from the Office for National Statistics showed. The benchmark FTSE 100 was
Dow Jones
0.2
56
25,120
up by 0.3% to 7,626.
Nasdaq
0.6
49
7,855
FTSE
0.3
26
7,626
On domestic front, Indian shares rose yesterday as reports of capital infusion helped
lift banking stocks and a sharp fall in oil prices overnight spurred a rally in the oil
Nikkei
0.9
214
22,912
sector. Weak cues from Asia and Europe served to limit the upside in the broader
Hang Seng
0.4
112
28,294
market. The BSE Sensex was increased by 0.5% to 36,520.
Shanghai Com
0.5
13
2,811
News Analysis
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Modi govt set to infuse Rs 20 billion into PNB to aid bond payment
Advances
1,442
1,056
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Declines
1,123
761
Unchanged
155
82
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Volumes (` Cr)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
BSE
2,566
Refer Pg5 onwards
NSE
28,287
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
659
867
31.6
FII
(540)
(1,767)
(6,607)
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
614
720
17.3
*MFs
14
1,395
69,998
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
305
410
34.4
Bata India
Others
Buy
843
948
12.5
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
405
589
45.4
More Top Picks on Pg4
FEDERALBNK
88
19.2
CORPBANK
27
10.9
Key Upcoming Events
HATHWAY
18
9.9
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
MRPL
81
9.3
Jul 18, 2018
US
Housing Starts
1,350.00
1,325.00
RCOM
13
8.7
Jul 18, 2018
US
Building permits
1,301.00
1,325.00
Jul 18, 2018
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
2.00
2.00
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Jul 18, 2018
UK
CPI (YoY)
2.40
2.60
Jul 19, 2018
US
Initial Jobless claims
214.00
DBCORP
252
(8.6)
More Events on Pg7
PCJEWELLER
83
(6.6)
VAKRANGEE
48
(5.0)
KWALITY
15
(4.9)
TATASTEELPP
110
(4.1)
As on July 17, 2018
Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
News Analysis
Modi govt set to infuse Rs 20 billion into PNB to aid bond
payment
India is preparing to infuse about Rs 20 billion into Punjab National Bank by next
week to help it meet dues on its perpetual bonds, people familiar with the matter
said. India's third-largest state-run lender will issue preferential shares to the
government. This will help restore capital to the level needed to pay the coupon
that’s due July 25, they said.
PNB needs to pay about 1.35 billion rupees to cover the 8.98 percent annual
interest on Rs 15 billion worth of so-called AT1 bonds sold in July
2017.
Unless PNB gets fresh capital in time, it may be unable to make the payment
because an unprecedented loan-fraud wiped out its profits and pushed the bank’s
capital below mandated levels, according to the local unit of Fitch Ratings. PNB’s
core tier I capital was at 5.96 percent as of March 31, below the Reserve Bank of
India’s minimum required 7.375 per cent.
A spokesman for Punjab National Bank said the bank will be making the coupon
payments on the due date, subject to regulatory approvals.
Economic and Political News
Industry not ready for higher axle load on heavy vehicles, tractor trailers
LIC likely to get management control of debt-ridden IDBI Bank
Cabinet to consider Rs 20 per quintal hike in sugarcane price for 2018-19
Panel to suggest change in law to check defaulters like Nirav Modi, Mallya
Govt doubles import duty on 50 textile products to promote domestic goods
Corporate News
McLeod Russel seeks shareholders' nod to sell additional tea gardens
JSW Steel gears up for next phase of growth, plans to raise Rs 250 bn
Cineplex owners may move SC over subsuming of entertainment tax into GST
NCLT okays Liberty House's resolution plan for Adhunik Metaliks, Zion Steel
Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,344
659
867
31.6
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
18,464
614
720
17.3
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
1,66,777
266
416
56.4
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,081
405
589
45.4
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,705
299
475
58.9
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,492
532
851
60
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,85,501
9,451
10,619
12.4
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,062
340
655
92.6
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,589
713
800
12.2
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
28,088
128
218
70.3
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,562
305
410
34.4
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,647
725
1,016
40.1
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by
20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,66,847
2,177
2,315
6.3
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and
healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
M&M
1,14,510
921
1,050
14
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
Amber Enterprises
2,941
935
1,230
31.6
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of
Bata India
10,829
843
948
12.5
~16% to ~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due
to new product launches, higher number of stores
addition and focus on women’s high growth
segment and margin improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
28,691
1,265
1,764
39.4
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing power
and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over FY18-
20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
19,252
199
350
75.9
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment.
GMM is expected to cross CAGR
15%+ in
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,183
809
1,020
26.1
revenue over the next few years mainly led by
uptick in demand from user industries and it is
also expecting to increase its share of non-GL
business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the Indian
Pharmaceutical companies, is well placed to face
the challenging generic markets, given its focus
on achieving growth through productivity.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
34,284
585
780
33.3
Aurobindo will report net revenue & net profit
CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp. during FY2018-
20E. Valuations are cheap V/s its peers and own
fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees income.
Yes Bank
87,790
381
418
9.7
We expect YES to grow its advance much higher
than industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR of
35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA (1.2%
RBL Bank
23,471
558
670
20.1
FY18) to expand led by margin expansion and
lower credit cost.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,581
269
360
33.8
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,439
1,635
2,178
33.2
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,620
2,045
2,500
22.0
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,573
210
395
88.1
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
29,357
147
210
42.9
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date
Company
Wednesday
July 18,2018
JK Tyre, UltraTech Cement, Mindtree, HT Media, Hindustan Media Ventures
Thursday
July 19,2018
Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Jul 18, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jun
1,350.00
1,325.00
6:00 PMUS
Building permits
Thousands
Jun
1,301.00
1,325.00
2:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jun F
2.00
2.00
2:00 PMUK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jun
2.40
2.60
Jul 19, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jul 14
214.00
Jul 23, 2018
7:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jul A
(0.50)
7:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
Jun
5.43
5.42
Jul 24, 2018
1:00 PMGermany PMI Services
Value
Jul P
54.50
7:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
Jun
689.00
668.00
Jul 25, 2018
1:00 PMGermany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul P
55.90
Jul 26, 2018
5:15 PMEuro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Jul 26
-
Jul 27, 2018
6:00 PMUS
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q A
2.00
3.80
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
6.9
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
4.8
4.6
4.8
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
6.0
4.0
3.2
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 16 July, 2018
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research as on 16 July, 2018
Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
75,010
2.0
(10.7)
17.7
Russia
Micex
4,526
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,023
1.7
5.4
12.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2,838
(7.0)
(11.1)
(10.8)
South Africa
Top 40
50,672
(1.8)
3.0
9.2
Mexico
Mexbol
48,696
5.9
1.0
(2.9)
Indonesia
LQ45
930
(2.4)
(7.0)
(4.5)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,704
(4.1)
(7.2)
(3.7)
Thailand
SET 50
1,080
(4.9)
(6.8)
8.5
USA
Dow Jones
24,925
(2.4)
1.2
14.7
UK
FTSE
7,651
(0.7)
5.4
3.7
Japan
Nikkei
22,188
(3.0)
1.8
10.5
Germany
DAX
12,493
(2.7)
1.6
(1.2)
France
CAC
5,406
(1.2)
1.5
4.2
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 16 July, 2018
Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
Open
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
July 18, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India
Limited,Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with
CDSL and Portfolio Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is
a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number
INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing
/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public
offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
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